The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just 60 days prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.